Estimating Profitability of Rice and Yield Change under Future Scenarios of Climate Change: A Case of Kwara State, Nigeria.
Critical to achieving sustainable growth in rice production and a major concern among rice producing regions of Nigeria is the issue of profitability. Several limitations such as the inadequate availability of inputs and credit facilities have limited the profit potential of the producers. Additionally, observed changes in climate and the effects on water availability, pest proliferation and other economic implications poses greater threat to the profitability. Although, recent invention such as: simple methods of irrigation like the diverted stream, and tube well have aided dry season production and reduced the effect of water shortage or changes in rainfall pattern. This also has an impending concern of a further increase in the cost of production. In line with these concerns, this study evolved to estimate the current profit level among the producers using the Gross margin technique. Furthermore, change in yield due to climate change was projected by extrapolation of projection by simulation studies base on various RCPs. The result from the Gross margin analysis reveals that averagely rice producers makes a profit of N 29,632 per hectare. While the minimum profit from rice production in the study area is N 25,500 and the maximum profit made is N 252,000 per season. Base on the extrapolation and climate change scenarios, its found that by 2050 the average yield of rice will change under business as usual with shorter growing duration as follows; rice yield will decline from by 1582.6 kg/ha to 1440.2 kg/ha. While under RCP 8.5, the average yield can decline from 1582.6 kg/ha to 1202.8 kg/ha by 2050.
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